美国30年期国债收益率飙升：市场担忧未来通胀与美联储的不确定性（华尔街日报/财富中文网）

美国国债收益率再创新高，市场担忧未来通胀

2026年春末，美国30年期国债收益率攀升至5.198%，创下自2008年金融危机前的最高水平。这一现象引发市场对长期通胀预期的广泛讨论，与1990年代初因克林顿政府财政赤字问题导致的债券市场动荡形成历史呼应。

《财富》杂志援引Janney Montgomery Scott首席固定收益策略师盖伊·勒巴斯观点指出，当前市场已非'债券义警'主导的时代。随着债券市场规模扩大，养老金等机构投资者占据主导地位，任何市场信号都难以由少数参与者操控。

市场波动背后的深层逻辑

勒巴斯解释道，当前债券市场波动主要源于趋势性交易基金的市场行为。当股市接近历史高位、市场交投清淡时，这些基金在价格上涨时买入、价格下跌时抛售，从而加剧市场波动。

• 债券市场投资者对长期通胀风险保持高度警惕
• 两党对货币政策目标存在根本分歧
• 市场逐步意识到霍尔木兹海峡封锁可能长期化

令人关注的是，美国财政部上周以5%票面利率拍卖30年期国债，但需求表现却相对冷淡。《金融时报》指出此次拍卖需求'平平'，反映出市场对未来经济前景的持续担忧。

国际局势对美债市场的影响

当前债市波动与中东局势密切相关。随着美国与伊朗和平协议谈判陷入僵局，霍尔木兹海峡封锁可能持续超过最初预期的数周。美国银行全球基金经理调查显示，约三分之二的市场参与者预计未来一年30年期美债收益率可能升至6%以上。

这种市场反应甚至可能推动特朗普加速与伊朗达成和平协议。正如2023年10年期美债收益率突破4.6%时导致其撤回'解放日'关税计划，当前高收益率或将迫使白宫采取紧急行动。

值得警惕的是，市场对特朗普提名的美联储主席凯文·沃什存在严重认知鸿沟。尽管部分投资者将担忧归咎于其对能源冲击的应对政策，但更多人认为关键在于对其政策理念的不明确。

美联储主席人选引发更大争议
《财富》杂志编辑指出，沃什的市场影响力弱于其名声。投资者担心他可能在通胀高企背景下采取降息措施，而市场要求的高长期收益率正是对这种政策风险的补偿。

弗吉尼亚大学埃里克·利珀教授强调：'问题不在于人们对沃什缺乏信心，而在于大家并不确定自己将面对一个什么样的美联储主席。' 这一判断揭示了当前市场对货币政策方向的根本性不确定性。

Historical Context and Market Dynamics
Back in 1993, the great Democratic strategist James Carville—famous for his quip, “It’s the economy, stupid”—told the Wall Street Journal that he used to think that if reincarnation existed, he wanted to come back as the president, the pope, or a .400 baseball hitter.

“But now I would like to come back as the bond market,” he said. “You can intimidate everybody.”

Current Market Turmoil
Indeed, in the late spring of 2026, bond investors seem to be throwing an early 1990s-style fit again as the 30-year Treasury yield has hit its highest point since before the Great Recession: 5.198%.

It’s tempting, analysts say, to paint another narrative like that of the 1990s, when bond investors drew yields higher on fears that Bill Clinton would let the deficit go wild. But this isn’t Carville’s bond market, Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, told Fortune.

“I get that the sort of story, of a couple guys in a room saying inflation is going to go higher, we’re going to fight back against the government, I get why that’s like an ongoing narrative,” LeBas said. But that group—the so-called bond vigilantes, a phrase coined by economist Ed Yardeni—“doesn’t exist,” according to LeBas.

Complex Market Dynamics
The reason why, he said, is that the bond market has become far too large and too dominated by nondiscretionary buyers like pension funds for a handful of participants to engineer a message. The cleaner explanation, in his telling, is basically automatic: momentum-driven funds that buy when prices rise and sell when they fall, going into a thin week with the stock market near all-time highs.

However, not all analysts are dismissing that news that quickly. Close bond watchers could have predicted this last week, when the Treasury auctioned off 30-year T-bills at a 5% interest rate; an amazing deal for investors, where you can loan the government money for 30 years and get approximately 5% back a year. It sounds like free money, but investors shied away; demand was “middling,” the FT reported.

Global Impact on U.S. Markets
That weak auction, with Tuesday’s record-high yield, pointed in the same direction: Investors expect inflation to slowly eat their returns over the long end. It’s not a proximate cause, but something deeper, said Eric Leeper, a University of Virginia economics professor and expert on monetary-fiscal interaction.

“Wow,” Leeper responded to this Fortune reporter reading him the current 30-year yield. “It’s got to be some serious uncertainty about future inflation.”

Geopolitical Factors
The bond market has agitated over recent weeks, climbing higher as it became clear to markets that the Strait of Hormuz closure was going to last further than a few weeks as Iran and the U.S. struggled toward a peace deal. Now, about two-thirds of investors think that the 30-year could rise above 6% in the next year, according to Bank of America Research’s global fund manager survey.

Policy Implications
The rout could spur Trump into getting a peace deal—any peace deal—done with Iran before it rains on the parade of the months-long AI rally that has broken records. The last time the 10-year-Treasury yields went above 4.6% Trump backed out of his Liberation Day tariffs after it caused a mass selloff.

But there’s an even more immediate trigger investors could blame: Kevin Warsh. Trump’s pick to chair the Federal Reserve isn’t distrusted so much as unknown.

“The fear is that Warsh, in an attempt to appease his boss, cuts into an inflationary, energy-shocked economy, and markets are demanding extra yield as insurance against exactly that,” the article concluded.